Black Swan Author Reveals The Real Reason Behind Catastrophic Crypto Crisis
Nassim Taleb – an award-winning philosopher – has called out the cryptocurrency market again following the FTX implosion. The famous author thinks Bitcoin is a tumor and can soon present investors with an unprecedented deleveraging scenario.
Moreover, Taleb has indicated no significant cash flow in the cryptocurrency market. As such, the former options trader and risk analyst thinks the crypto market is in a liquidity crisis.
Notably, a liquidity crisis is described as a financial situation characterized by a lack of cash at hand across many financial institutions simultaneously.
Furthermore, most crypto companies – including Binance exchange – use their native tokens for insurance funds. The trend has been questioned as irrational since most crypto projects either pre-mined their tokens or control the largest hash power.
Through a series of tweets, Taleb indicated that blockchain technology has not flourished to generate significant cash flow, particularly during bear markets. Instead, Taleb thinks that the cash circulating in the cryptocurrency industry is from other crypto projects.
The decline in crypto cash flow can be attributed mainly to the FTX fallout and the DCG’s impending implosion. Furthermore, millions of crypto traders and investors were stranded by the FTX collapse, with the investigations taking slower than anticipated.
Closer Look at Crypto Market Outlook
According to the latest crypto price oracles, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at around $868 billion. Additionally, the total reported crypto trading volume in the past 24 hours stands at approximately $44.7 billion. The huge difference indicates that most crypto assets are used for speculative purposes and have been stored for later use.
As such, most cryptocurrency community continues to disregard Taleb’s opinions. Furthermore, speculation is part of the grey area that the cryptocurrency market thrives on.
One of Taleb’s opinion comments argues that the Bitcoin market should be compared to the Gold and oil industry that all have different intrinsic values. Moreover, the Bitcoin industry has significantly opened up locked-up economies.
According to tech billionaire Elon Musk, Bitcoin will thrive long-term, but the ongoing bear market will last long. The reduced cash flow highlighted by Taleb is a culmination of the past major on-chain activities. Furthermore, global confidence in the cryptocurrency market has significantly been shaken.
Nonetheless, every cryptocurrency trader must conduct proper research and form personal opinions before purchasing or investing in the digital asset economy.
Exit All Your Funds From Coinbase, It’s A Sinking Ship, Alerts “The Black Swan” Author
This week’s financial crisis has had far-reaching effects on the crypto market. Values of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, including Cardano, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, have declined significantly since the start of the year, possibly by as much as 10%.
Recent reports that Coinbase’s CEO Brian Armstrong has sold off shares for $1.6 million (or more) have spooked investors even more, just as the market was starting to regain footing.
Coinbase is A “Sinking Ship”
By referring to Coinbase as a “sinking ship,” author Nassim Taleb of “The Black Swan” has recommended investors exit their holdings immediately.
In light of accusations that CEO Brian Armstrong sold shares of Coinbase for more than $1.6 million, renowned Lebanese-American statistician and author of “The Black Swan,” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has recommended investors and users abandon the company.
The news that Armstrong allegedly sold 29,732 Class A Coinbase shares for $1,625,102 on November 11 has caused more worldwide shockwaves following the series of terrible mishaps on Satoshi Street. The details were disclosed in a filing submitted by Coinbase with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Apparently, Armstrong has also converted Class B shares to Class A shares.
Taleb’s Piece Of Advice
Taleb regards this as a sign of looming danger surrounding the company, and he advises the general public not to invest in Coinbase till there is more clarity. The author claims that no CEO ever sells their shares, since it is unethical to do so in the eyes of the investors, unless and until the situation is critical.
His comments have instigated even more fear and panic among the market participants.
Taleb continued by saying that investors should take CEO stock sales very seriously because they may indicate that the company is having problems. The fact that it is such a small percentage, as Taleb pointed out, is the most concerning aspect of the situation. The timing of Taleb’s comments is appropriate, as the crypto industry is facing a contagion due to the FTX collapse.
This leads to the question: What’s next on the crypto horizon? The once-safe zone is now a threat to financial stability.
Let’s examine how the community has reacted to this.
The Crypto Community Speaks Out
In response to Taleb’s claims, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin took it upon himself to come forward and debunk these claims.
Buterin emphasized the “psychological burden” of holding one’s entire wealth in an illiquid asset.
The Canadian-born Russian programmer added that it is wise to diversify one’s holdings, which doesn’t necessarily indicate trouble.
According to him, there’s no harm in “mixing things up”, and doing so can help one remain confident in their investments.
Interestingly, a week after Coinbase went public on Nasdaq, it was reported that Armstrong sold $291M in Coinbase shares on the launch day. SEC filings show Armstrong sold 749,999 shares in three batches.
Incidentally, it was also revealed last month that Armstrong would be selling around 2% of his Coinbase shares to raise money for scientific research.
In addition to all of this, Shopify’s CEO, Lutke Tobias, has been on a Coinbase purchasing binge since he joined the board of directors in January. During the time frame of this article, Coinbase (COIN) has fallen 4.33% versus the dollar, trading at 46.76. Since last year, the global financial crisis has caused COIN to drop by 86.52%.
The collapse of FTX and Alameda, once worth more than $30 billion, is catastrophic from an investor’s perspective, but the broader effect is a lack of trust in crypto. In the long run, these incidents may make investors hesitant to invest.
All in all, it’s important to understand that crypto has yielded impressive profits for people and has also caused significant losses. Investors should not invest in uncontrolled markets without understanding the hazards. In high-risk situations like crypto, investors can lose everything, as is apparent by the FTX crisis.
“Black Swan” Author Nassim Taleb
The philosopher, former options trader, and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the almost-iconic novels “Black Swan” and “Antifragile,” has taken to Twitter to poke fun at Barry Silbert, the cryptocurrency tycoon who created the Digital Currency Group and its subsidiary, Grayscale. According to Taleb, Silbert is still waiting for Bitcoin to chart above $100,000.
The creator of the Digital Currency Group, Nassim Taleb, jokingly tweeted, “I still expect the top cryptocurrency to leap above the $100,000 price mark.” Silbert quipped that he is looking forward to selling Bitcoin at $100,000 to the author of “Black Swan,” who has grown skeptical about Bitcoin over the previous few years, in a snapshot that Taleb tweeted.
On his Twitter page in March of this year, Taleb expressed his opinion that Bitcoin would still be a failure even if its price reached $100,000. According to the risk analyst, Bitcoin has demonstrated that it is ineffective as an inflation hedge.
Taleb thinks that the current “crypto winter” might easily develop into a “full-blown ice age.” Barry Silbert, on the other hand, the founder of the two significant cryptocurrency firms mentioned above, has always been a proponent of Bitcoin and an investor in BTC.
BTC Slips Below $19K
The price of bitcoin is presently in a phase of midterm consolidation. As a result of the price decline, it will now be up against a big level of support near $19K, which is the support that the bulls must hold over the next short term.
The price of BTC has entered a stabilization period with choppy market activity following a particularly severe loss of almost 10%. The price of Bitcoin has been significantly supported during the previous few months by the $19K support level. Therefore, if this level is breached, a severe decrease is to be expected.