Prepare For Altcoin Season Ahead: Here’s What On-Chain Data Suggest
The money flow from fiat currencies to Bitcoin, to large-cap altcoins, to mid-cap altcoins, and small-cap altcoins has significantly caused financial reorganization worldwide. This has led to stress in the traditional banking industry, resulting in some banks capping money flow to crypto exchanges.
However, Bitcoin’s value has continued to rise despite global recession fears, with the cryptocurrency trading around $28.2k on Friday, up 70% YTD, according to TradingView market data. The second-largest digital asset, Ethereum, has also gained 51% YTD.
Altcoin Market Predictions
Although some altcoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) have not made significant gains since January, crypto analysts predict that the money flow will soon enter the mid-cap and small altcoins in the coming weeks, sparking an altcoin season.
According to Santiment, several transactions worth over $40 million have already occurred on the networks of altcoins like $MATIC, $FET, $MANA, $DIA, $IMX, and $SAND, indicating increased market activity.
Crucial Indicators for Upcoming Altcoin Season
As per famous Twitter crypto trader @CryptoTony_, the altcoin season is already underway, marked by the recent 10% pump in Litecoin (LTC), which is now trading at around $95 on Friday. With Bitcoin experiencing resistance at $28k, the analyst expects altcoins to start pumping soon.
The analyst uses the ETH/BTC derivative chart to track the money flow from Bitcoin to the altcoin market.
“We are nearing a pivotal point and a place where I do feel we can bounce hard if we hold. 0.06 – 0.058 is that area to hold,” the analyst stated. The analyst also suggests that Bitcoin price could rise again to $30k before retracing to $25k in the coming weeks.
$4.14M Profit In 48 Hours: On-Chain Data Unveils Shiba Inu (SHIB) Trader’s Lucrative Moves!
USDC, the fifth most popular cryptocurrency coin, and trusted stablecoin, lost its peg to the US dollar on Saturday, March 11, 2023. The coin’s value decreased from $1 to a low of $0.887. The majority of cryptocurrency investors are shocked by this because it hasn’t happened since the first introduction of USDC in 2018. After a 15% loss, the token’s market capitalization fell below $40 billion.
The crypto whales have reported significant losses as a result of these incidents and seem to have started a series of capital flights to safeguard assets. It is reported that the losses amounted to over a billion dollars in stock and deposits.
However, it seems like not everyone took a loss and some have actually profited from it. Here’s how.
Lookonchain Reveals a Smart Address That Made $4.14M Amid USDC Depeg
Lookonchain, an on-chain analyzer, in a recent series of tweets has revealed the specifics of a smart address that profited $4.14 million by trading Ethereum during the USDC de-pegging.
Lookonchain highlighted how smart the user is by pointing out how they sold their ETH before LUNA crashed and how they bought Shiba Inu early and sold it at its peak in May and October 2021. Also, it was noted by the on-chain researchers that the address currently has over $71.72 million.
Lookonchain determined that the 15 addresses that purchased 47,670 ETH for 67.58 million USDC at $1,418 on March 10 were likely owned by the same person. This is due to on-chain data showing that on April 21, 2021, a sizable sum of SHIB was sent to these addresses from the same address. Later, the user sold 47,688 ETH for $1,505 for a total of 71.72 million USD. At a 6% ROI, the user made $4.14 million in just two days.
Some clever SHIB trades were also mentioned. On-chain data indicates that the user was an early Shiba Inu investor and purchased 5.5 trillion at 180 ETH ($400k) before its price increase in May 2021. As the price of SHIB reached its all-time high in May and October 2021, the smart address sold all of the SHIB for 35k ETH.
Prior to the demise of LUNA, the user exchanged ETH for USDC. At the time of publication, the majority of the user’s funds were split among 15 addresses and were in USDT. The price of USDC has increased by 3.47% during the past 24 hours to $0.9892.
At times of uncertainty and upheaval, the user appears to have made some incredibly smart decisions. Profits would result from being able to capitalize on unpredictable moments like these.
Circle Begins USDC Redemptions as It Burns 314 million USDC: On-Chain Data
Following the unexpected collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, there were inquiries regarding the vulnerability of Circle, one of the leading companies in the crypto industry and the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, USDC. After the firm revealed its $3.3 billion USDC exposure to the collapsed bank, the stablecoin quickly depegged, creating panic this weekend.
However, Circle is now successfully pushing USDC to its dollar peg as it recovers 100% of its reserved fund, and Fed’s $25 billion bailout is bringing back investors’ confidence. According to a report, Circle has begun its redemption by sending 314 million USDC to a null address to stabilize the market.
Circle Prioritizes 1:1 Redeemability Of All USDC In Circulation
On March 13th, the Web 3.0 analytics platform Watchers (0xscope) reported that Circle, the issuer of USDC, had transferred a total of 314.167 million USDC to the Ethereum null address with header 0x00. Typically, this null address is employed for removing tokens from circulation through one-way transactions.
The day before, Circle had declared that all depositors with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) would be “fully available” following a joint statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other regulators. This move would represent $3.3 billion or 8% of the total USDC reserve and would take effect as soon as U.S. banks open on Monday. Jeremy Allaire, co-founder and CEO of Circle said:
“Trust, safety and 1:1 redeemability of all USDC in circulation is of paramount importance to Circle, even in the face of bank contagion affecting crypto markets. We are heartened to see the U.S. government and financial regulators take crucial steps to mitigate risks extending from the banking system.”
Circle’s USDC Redemptions May Relieve Investors
Circle has started the process of redeeming USDC, meaning that depositors can now get their money back. This move came as a relief to many investors who were worried about the stability of USDC after the collapse of SVB.
The burning of USDC, however, has led to some confusion and speculation about what Circle is doing. Some believe that it is a move to show that Circle is committed to the stability of the USDC, while others speculate that it is a way for the company to remove tokens from circulation and increase the value of the remaining USDC in the market.
Despite the speculation, Circle has not issued any official statement regarding the burning of USDC. However, the move has sparked a debate about the use of stablecoins, their role in the crypto market, and the need for transparency from issuers like Circle.
USD Coin was created to have a 1:1 redeemable value with fiat U.S. dollars. Its tokenomics are managed through the use of fiat collaterals, which are adjusted proportionally to the number of new tokens being minted or burned.
However, on March 10th, the token experienced a depegging from its intended value. This was caused by a bank run on Circle’s custodian bank, SVB, due to a series of failed leveraged long positions on the U.S. Treasury. As a result, federal regulators, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, were forced to intervene.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Whales Flexes On-Chain Activity – Will the Price Spike?
The largest meme coin by daily traded volume and market capitalization, Dogecoin (DOGE), has enjoyed a bullish sentiment since tech billionaire Elon Musk purchased Twitter Inc for a whopping $44 billion. With a market capitalization of approximately $11,962,464,342 and a 24-hour traded volume of about $926,904,880, the Dogecoin ecosystem enjoys over 5,142,743 global holder base.
The second largest proof-of-work (PoW) secured digital asset has seen its social media involvement spike following the rise of meme coins’ global popularity. As of today, Dogecoin’s official Twitter account has amassed over 3.6 million followers since its inception in 2013.
Having registered over 1000 X in its lifetime, Dogecoin has attracted whale investors due to its deep liquidity and high volatility. Moreover, Ethereum miners have enjoyed some cushion from the Dogecoin network after the former migrated to proof-of-stake (PoS) through the Merge event.
Dogecoin Whale Appetite Spikes
The 2023 crypto relief rally has not significantly favored the Dogecoin price compared to other meme coins like Floki and Shiba Inu. Nonetheless, whales have been accumulating the meme lord irrespective of the bear market. Moreover, the next crypto bull market is expected to go parabolic in less than two years, according to most analysts.
According to analysis provided by on-chain analytic firm Santiment, Dogecoin’s whales have purchased over 1.06 billion DOGE worth approximately $94.34 million in the last 24 hours.
Additionally, Santiment noted that more whale accounts have been withdrawing Dogecoins from centralised exchanges to non-custodial wallets.
However, the Dogecoin price continues to consolidate sideways despite the increased on-chain whale activity.
XRP Whale Intensifies On-Chain Activity – Will the XRP Price Go Parabolic?
The XRP price is retesting a macro falling trend for the third consecutive week with minimal success. Trading around 40 cents, the Ripple-backed crypto asset has seen its underlying value significantly suppressed by the ongoing lawsuit filed by the U.S. SEC two years ago. Nonetheless, the company’s crypto-enabled cross-border payments solution, On Demand Liquidity (ODL), has made significant strides in onboarding institutional investors.
According to the company’s fourth-quarter report on the XRP market, the On Demand Liquidity (ODL) launched in France, Sweden, and Africa are now available in nearly 40 payouts markets. As such, XRP is bound to record an increase in whale accounts utilizing XRP for the ODL transfers.
Can Whale Power Push XRP Price Beyond $0.4?
The XRP price has significantly been bolstered by whales despite several crypto exchanges delisting the asset following the commencement of the lawsuit by the SEC. According to on-chain research conducted by whale alert, several XRP transactions have been spotted in the past 24 hours cumulatively worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Notably, the two largest XRP whale transactions spotted in the past 24 hours amounted to approximately $198 million, each worth $99 million. Thereby insinuating a correlation between the two whale transactions.
The XRP price has, however, not made significant moves in the past few days to break through a year-long falling trend line. Should the whale purchasing power exceed the XRP shorts in the coming weeks, a breakout could take place soon.
If not, the digital asset could find some temporary solace between $0.32 and $0.36, a support line that has sustained since June last year.
Can Bitcoin’s Price Skyrocket with Increased On-Chain Activity? Here’s A Closer Look
Bitcoin price enjoyed a decent rally in January after posting a choppy 2022 following high-profile collapses including Terra Luna UST and FTX crypto exchange. Having rejected $24k for the past five days, the Bitcoin price exchanged around $23k on Tuesday. However, the largest gains have been recorded in the small caps altcoins like Baby Doge Coin, which mostly signifies the end of a cycle.
Furthermore, money circulation in the crypto market is observed to move from large caps to small caps later. As such, on-chain intelligence firm Santiment has warned crypto traders to take extra caution with bear traps in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin On-Chain Spike Amid Price Correction
Ever since the Bitcoin Taproot was upgraded, the overall network’s security has increased exponentially with each successfully mined block. Moreover, Bitcoin miners overwhelmingly backed the Taproot upgrade, which has in turn seen block utilization spike to 100 percent according to on-chain analysts.
As Bitcoin nodes and miners increase around the world, the Taproot upgrade was designed to be more useful in identity masking in a regulated manner over time.
“Since taproot script spends can only be made from existing taproot outputs, inscriptions are made using a two-phase commit/reveal procedure,” an ordinals inscription notes.
According to research by on-chain research firm Glassnode, the Taproot adoption metric has risen to an ATH 7.47 per cent and Taproot Utilization to 2.84 per cent.
With a notable spike in on-chain activity, analysts are arguing if the underlying Bitcoin value will rally to $30k in the near future.
Bitcoin Will Likely Witness A Bumpy Ride Next Week! On-Chain Metrics Suggest Short-Term Suffering For BTC Price
The crypto market has been on a roll lately as major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have witnessed significant price swings in the last few days. The Bitcoin price trend has been stuck in a choppy range as it swings sideways with 1% volatility, creating a blurred vision for long-term holders.
The primary reason behind this intense volatility is the recently released report on job growth by the US, pumping the dollar and weakening the BTC price. Hence, it caused a shift in investors’ sentiments and questioned whether Bitcoin price would form a dip next week or make a bullish reversal.
BTC On-Chain Metrics May Create Turmoil
As the US economy provides a bullish job report which strengthens the dollar, it creates a weakening situation for several crypto assets, including Bitcoin. Several analysts believe that Bitcoin is unlikely to witness a fresh bullish cycle in the next two weeks.
According to the on-chain analytics firm, Glassnode, the number of BTC addresses with a non-zero balance witnessed a spike of 300K on 2 February. A similar spike in BTC addresses was seen just after the collapse of the FTX exchange, which indicated the escape of BTC owners from a centralized exchange to a self-custody one.
If the non-zero BTC addresses continue to rise at the same pace, it may touch an all-time high by the end of February. Moreover, the analytic firm suggests that an influx of interest from investors in jumping on the BTC bull ride may create a massive concern in the Bitcoin market as it may develop a profit-taking sentiment among investors, resulting in a significant price drop in the BTC price chart after attaining a bullish goal.
Bitcoin Price To Form A Correction Next Week
Though Bitcoin has made a steady climb since the beginning of the new year, it is now facing several bumps on its upward trajectory, developing a slowdown in the price chart. As a result, it is predicted that the BTC price will be preparing for a downward correction by next week before entering into a bullish cycle.
As of writing, the BTC price hovers near $23,435, with a minor uptrend in the last 24 hours. A prominent crypto analyst, Solldy, predicts a short-term downward retracement in the BTC price chart as the RSI forms a bearish divergence with the current price trend.
The analyst mentioned that Bitcoin might consolidate longer near the $23.5K price level to gain enough selling pressure before dropping heavily. By the next week, the BTC price may form a support level below its 0.23 Fib level at $22.8K.
After that, Bitcoin is projected to witness its seventh golden cross, which may spark a lasting bull run with excellent medium to long-term buy signals after this minor downtrend.
On-Chain Data Predict Potential Selling Pressure for Bitcoin – What Next For BTC Price?
Bitcoin price has gained approximately 1.52 percent in the past 24 hours to trade around $23,115.25 during the early Asian market on Tuesday. The recent rally has pushed Bitcoin price out of a falling trend that lasted over a year.
However, Glassnode analysts are warning the market has not signaled clear price action for traders to buy in at current levels. Moreover, Glassnode highlighted that Bitcoin miners and holders may be motivated to take some profits after the 2022 bear market.
“The recent price recovery from the December lows to over $23.2k has significantly improved investor profitability across the board,” Glassnode noted.
According to the on-chain analytic firm, the 2022 bear market has portrayed similar attributes to the 2018/2019 one. As such, the firm has noted that Bitcoin price will completely be out of the woods at around $28.3k.
From the holders’ profitability scale, Glassnode noted that the recent rally from $16.9k to $23.1k has increased the supply of traders’ profits from 55 percent to 67 percent. Reportedly, long-term holders are above their break-even price of about $22.6k
“After 6.5 months, the market price has finally recovered above the long-term holders’ cost basis at $22.6k. This denotes that the average LTH is only just above their break-even basis,” the firm noted.
Interestingly, short-term holders and Bitcoin miners are selling part of the bag to take some profits. With a notable recovery in Bitcoin miners’ balance sheet, Glassnode noted that the resulting behavior shift has switched from the accumulation of over 8.5k BTC/month to the distribution of negative 1.6k BTC/month. Reportedly, Bitcoin miners spent approximately -5.6k BTC since January 8 and have experienced a net balance decline YTD.
Bitcoin Remain Uncertain, Here Is What On-Chain Data Claims
The star cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has stunned the crypto space with its spectacular performance since the beginning of 2023. This morning, the King currency had also surpassed the $21,000 area before making a slight drop. Interestingly, Bitcoin has hit 52 in terms of Fear & Greed Index (FGI) during the weekend.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is selling at $20,841 with a rise of 0.37% over the last 24hrs.
Even though the flagship currency is holding on to its trade above $20K, there are possibilities for minor downfall in the view of investors profit booking. One of the main reasons for Bitcoin’s price jump in the last few days in the Bollinger Bands Squeeze breakout. On the contrary, RSI is suggesting a slight pullback as Bitcoin is in an overbought area after hitting 90 score.
However, as 20-EMA has overtaken 50-EMA there is an indication of a positive price trend.
Bitcoin On Its Next Cycle
Meanwhile, analysts like Michael van de Poppe & Credible are portraying a bullish stance towards Bitcoin. Van de Poppe is of the opinion that before a surge Bitcoin will slightly face a pull back. Credible claims that Bitcoin is already in a 5th wave of Elliott Wave.
Another analyst, Peter Brandt claims Bitcoin to hit $65k by mid of 2023. However, he also says that before BTC captures this level, the currency will drop near $18K.
On the other hand, Glassnode, an on-chain data platform believes that even though analysts are not sure of BTC’s performance, the flagship currency is moving in-line with its historical pattern. This suggests that the Bitcoin bottom has occurred and the next cycle has begun. Hence, investors and traders need to closely observe and research well before making their next move.
Bitcoin Bulls Gear up for New Week, On-Chain Data Suggests BTC Price Hasn’t ‘Bottomed’ Yet
The Bitcoin bulls are fighting to push the price above the $17,000 level but are content with a few small, barely perceptible gains. During the weekend, Bitcoin bulls reached closer to the $17k threshold, and it recently dropped below the $16,900 level.
Getting past the $16,900 price point will open the door to $17,000. On the other hand, if demand is slow to materialize, BTC may retrograde even more and settle at $16,600.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the price hasn’t yet bottomed out as many had expected. Price typically stays higher than the realized price during bullish crypto market cycles. In contrast, when a bear market is on the verge of capitulating completely, the price drops below the realized price, igniting a generalized panic.
Realized Price is a metric reflecting the average price that all market participants paid for their coins, weighted by the supply. It is determined as a realized cap divided by the total coin supply and can be seen as an on-chain support or resistance price.
“During this period, market participants are under much stress and distribute their assets to avoid additional losses and control their exposure to further market fluctuations.”
Will BTC Again Dip Below $16,700?
According to the Stock Flow Reversion of Bitcoin, according to Gigisulivan, a CryptoQuant researcher, during the current bear market, the value of the largest cryptocurrency may go below the $16,700 threshold.
After the publication of favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, Gigisulivan predicted that BTC might try to trade in the $20,000–$22,000 price range. “Just a thought, considering 2023 could be worse than 2022 once we know what sort of recession we are getting.”
Yonsei dent, another CryptoQuant analyst, discovered that as Bitcoin’s long-term holders increased their coin distribution, unfavorable sentiment grew. The Support Adjusted Dormancy indicator for BTC has been on an upward trend since the middle of December, according to Yonsei dent.
Is It the Right Time to Accumulate Bitcoin? Here’s What On-Chain Data Says
Bitcoin’s price hiked after the Federal Reserve announced a rate hike that was less significant than those seen at previous meetings and still indicated that continual hikes are possibly warranted. However, the king currency was pulled down as the dollar rallied with the return of risk aversion, which caused investors to have a sentiment that was relatively bearish.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve increased its target fed funds rate by 0.5%, bringing it up to a range of between 4.25% and 4.5%.
This move was in accordance with the expectations of Wall Street. According to reports, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee do not anticipate a change from rate rises to rate cuts until the year 2024.
Bitcoin is now trading in a bearish direction, despite having just broken over a crucial level of resistance located around $18,150 Bitcoin’s price, however, plummeted below the $18,000 level after the Fed’s statement that it will raise interest rates.
This points to the possibility that the current pattern of sales will continue. BTC is trading at $17,708 at the time of this writing, which represents a decrease of roughly 1% in the previous 24 hours.
What On-Chain Data is Suggesting?
According to on-chain data, the ‘Bitcoin (BTC) Spent Output Value Bands: All Exchanges’ measure suggests that the quantity of whale deposits on cryptocurrency exchanges is dropping.
Typically, the development of the bottom of the Bitcoin market is caused by whales selling their BTC holdings by transferring them to cryptocurrency exchanges.
After a bear market that lasted for a whole year and witnessed enormous sales by whales and miners, Bitcoin is now starting an accumulation cycle before the next halving.
In point of fact, it is anticipated that institutional investors would discreetly purchase the downturn in a manner similar to the accumulation cycle that occurred in 2019-2020.
Cryptoquant’s analysis says:
“In terms of spending, the continued high level of whale spending is contradictory with a sign that could lead to a market cycle change. An upward sustained price trend is typically accompanied by whales holding their bitcoins.”
In a related development, according to the findings of a survey conducted by a reputable crypto analytics platform, despite the fact that 2018 was a difficult year for the majority of the cryptocurrency market, there does not seem to be a shortage of believers that 2023 would give a chance for recovery.
The cryptocurrency monitoring website CoinMarketCap is now conducting an end-of-year wrap-up survey. Participants were asked to submit their votes according to whether or not they anticipated the next year would be bullish or bearish, and more than eighty percent of the respondents voted ‘bullish.’
Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
Bitcoin traded in a narrow band between $18,500 and $20,000 between September and October. However, after the stunning collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, bitcoin plunged 26% at one point.
For anyone wondering whether this is a good time to purchase Bitcoin, I wouldn’t recommend it. The overall macroeconomics for bitcoin is unfavorable. On-chain/flow numbers for bitcoin are quite bearish.
As a result, if you have a time horizon of two to four weeks, it is certain that now is not the greatest moment to purchase bitcoin. Unless you’re aiming for long-term gain.
As such, you may purchase and then be ready to hold on for dear life for months, when ideally the situation would have become much better.
XRP Price Might Initiate Fresh Rally By End of December: On-Chain Hints Bullish Trend
Since reaching a multi-year high in April of last year, the price of XRP has been steadily dropping. The market-wide sell-offs and the general market sentiment helped the sellers hasten the bearish trend.
However, over the past few days and weeks, XRP’s price has fluctuated wildly, with investors sending the once-troubled token rocketing and breaking above the historically stable trading range between $0.20 and $0.30. Despite XRP failing to gather enough momentum to break above $0.60, investors seemed to be invested in the coin.
Looking at the technical indicators and on-chain data, the number of users interacting with the token and the network continues to be very strong. The constant increase in XRP trade volumes indicated that retailers were up to something. The volume increase could have increased consumer-induced volatility for the price of XRP.
According to Santiment, the daily active addresses (DAA) for XRP saw a significant increase of almost 200% along with higher trade volumes. Since November 30, XRP DAA has been rising, rising from 51,161 on December 4 to 161,000 as of this writing.
XRP vs SEC
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, recently expressed confidence in a positive outcome in the near future. Even as the case against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission draws to a close, lawyer John Deaton, the founder of Crypto Law and a supporter of Ripple, has identified what he believes to be the largest threat to Ripple in the ongoing case.
The XRP token itself is not a security, and secondary market sales of the token are not an unregistered security offering, according to Judge Torres, who could rule that Ripple “offered” unregistered security at some point.
“[This] is the biggest danger to Ripple IMO. The application of the law doesn’t focus only on sales. In fact, a sale or transfer of the underlying asset doesn’t have to occur for a company to be liable. If there’s an oral argument, I bet you hear the SEC lawyer focus a lot on the ‘offering.’”
Bitcoin and Ethereum On-Chain Data Has Some Good News for Traders
A number of cryptocurrencies are currently trading in the red and Bitcoin (BTC) recently hit a two-year low.
In such an exceptional bear market situation, the FTX crisis has only acted as fuel to fire and caused widespread distrust among the crypto participants, making them wary of investing any longer. Bitcoin is getting closer to a critical threshold, which might determine the market’s short-term direction. Despite some bullish signals on the technical charts, it is still too early to say whether a new bullish phase is approaching.
Active Addresses Surge
A highly reliable analytics company– IntoTheBlock- has noticed a stabilization in the number of BTC and ETH active addresses, which suggests that more people are using the top two cryptocurrencies now.
According to IntoTheBlock, one important metric is flashing a bullish signal for Ethereum and Bitcoin. After assets marked their ATH in May 2021, there was a decline in daily addresses for Ethereum and Bitcoin. The active addresses have now quickly stabilized and maintained constant levels ever since.
“We see around a 36% increase in active addresses for Ethereum (327,000 addresses on March 8th, 2020 compared to 514,000 addresses on December 1st, 2022). Bitcoin has seen more modest gains with about [a] 20.6% increase in active addresses (826,000 on March 9th, 2022 compared to 1.04 million on December 1st, 2022).”
The market intelligence company keeps track of daily active addresses, which counts the number of wallets that have completed at least one transaction each day. According to them, wider adoption is indicated by more active addresses. The analytics company also stated that despite the unsettling macroeconomic situations, the number of active addresses for BTC and ETH has remained stable.
Miner’s Holdings Reduce
However, Glassnode data shows that miners’ BTC reserves have dropped by 13K BTC over the past several months; it is now at 1,818,280.032 BTCs, a 14-month low. In October of last year, the price reached a 14-month low of 1,818,778.794. Moreover, due to a reduction in mining activity, Bitcoin’s hash rate has been decreasing as well.
According to on-chain data on short-term inflows and outflows from Miners’ wallets, there were a lot of outflows in November. It can result in a decrease in price or a rise in volatility. Miners sold over 6,000 Bitcoins the previous week and 10,000 this week.
Historical On-chain Data Hints at Bitcoin Bottom! What’s Next For BTC price?
The crypto winter seems to be fading after long tears and tantrums that began in May as the market made a significant bullish season in October. Bitcoin went on to touch its monthly highs as it broke the fundamental resistance level at $20K.
BTC is trying to regain its old glory by showing positive signs of recovery as the digital asset added nearly $30 billion to its market cap and increased its value by 8% in ‘Uptober’.
However, the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting scheduled for tomorrow may bring some bearish woes for Bitcoin as it may again form a bottom in the price chart.
A Similarity In Bitcoin’s Pattern!
Several prominent crypto analysts around the world have given their speculations about Bitcoin’s future price movements following its historical pattern.
Recently, on-chain data provider and analyst firm, Glassnode has published their weekly on-chain data of Bitcoin, hinting at an extended bearish trend for Bitcoin.
According to Glassnode’s weekly report, specific metrics indicate the in-depth comparison of BTC’s current bottom movement with its previous cycles.
To confirm this bearish analysis, two indicators were utilized: Realized Price and Mayer Multiple, while the former calculates the average acquisition per coin and the latter measures the ratio of the coin’s current price to its 200-day SMA (simple moving average).
The Realized price helps in identifying the unrealized loss of the total market if the spot price trades below the calculated Realized Price, which indicates an overall bearish trend of the specific coin.
The Mayer Multiple presents two market conditions: overbought and oversold. The analyst noted that Bitcoin maintained a Mayer Multiple value below 0.6 in its previous cycle lows.
Glassnode stated, “Remarkably, this pattern has repeated in the current bear market, with the June lows trading below both models for 35 days. The market is currently approaching the underside of the Realized Price at $21,111, where a break above would be a notable sign of strength.”
Looking at 2018’s Bitcoin bear market, it makes similar price trends and patterns in 2022. Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA) plays a similar game in 2018 and 2022 as BTC initiated a long-consolidated movement after its price traded below the 200week EMA.
Bitcoin’s Current Bearish Trend To Last Longer
To determine the upcoming potential consolidated range of Bitcoin’s bearish market trend, Glassnode conducted another metric which is the Balanced Price, representing the difference between the transferred price and realized price.
According to analysis, BTC may trade in a range between Realized Price’s upper limit at $21.1K and Balanced Price’s lower limit at $16.5k.
Glassnode noted that BTC previously kept its price below 0.6 for 5.5 to 10 months while in a bearish trend.
The current downtrend is only three months old, while in the 2014 and 2015 bear markets, BTC stayed in a range-bound bearish zone for ten months, and in the 2018/2019 bear market, the bearish range lasted for 5.5 months.
Therefore, it is anticipated that the current downtrend will extend further and trade in this range a bit longer before making any bullish reversal.
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) represents the total distribution supply of a specific acquisition price. Glassnode analyzed that BTC price registered a UTXO of 22.7% of the total supply when the price made a low below the Realized Price upper limit in 2018-2019.
Comparing this data with the current price movement, BTC is poised to drop more as the UTXO is just 14%. The analysis suggests that “further redistribution is needed”, which will push Bitcoin to new lows in the upcoming months.
Glassnode said, “It does not appear that the bear-to-bull transition has formed as yet, however, there does appear to be seeds planted in the ground.”
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Terra Classic On-Chain Volume Surge While Burn Volume Plunge
Terra classic (LUNC) is seeing no signs of bull run as LUNC price was once again rejected recently at a resistance of $0.000251. The current bearish pattern of Terra Classic has been seen since September which has resulted in a massive sell-off. Though there was a slight bull run recently the bulls couldn’t hold on to that for long which created a bearish trend.
Currently, Terra Classic (LUNC) is selling at $0.000231 with a drop of 7.69% over the last 24hrs. The immediate resistance lies at $0.000250 while the support is positioned at $0.000200 level.
On the other hand, on Oct 19 the Terra community approved the proposal 5234 which will reduce 1.2% tax burn to 0.2%. The proposal also claims to dedicate 10% of tax revenue to developing the network.
Surge In Terra Classic’s On-Chain Volume
Now, following the tax burn reduction, Terra Classic’s on-chain volume has spiked which was confirmed by a Terra influencer, Classy Crypto via twitter post.
The main agenda behind reducing 1.2% tax burn to 0.2% was to find some positive events within the Terra network. Earlier, after the 1.2% tax burn went live in September, on-chain volume had declined.
However, the one who proposed the tax reduction, Duncan Day claims that will have to wait for at least seven days to arrive at the final conclusion.
It is also important to note that along with seeing a rise in volume, the tax reduction proposal aimed to see an effective bur. However, there isn’t any notable effect on the burn mechanism because Changpeng Zhao, Binance CEO had claimed that decreased tax will see more burns. For example, on Oct 18, before tax burn reduction there was a burn of 190 million LUNC. However on Oct 19 after implementation of the proposal, there was only 150 million LUNC burnt. This decline pattern was followed on Oct 20 which saw just 49 million LUNC burn as per LUNC Burner data.
Well, as claimed by Duncan Day the final result of Terra Classic volume increase will be confirmed after seven day.
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Ethereum On-Chain Metrics Signal A Positive Rally Ahead – ETH Price Might Hit This Level Soon
The Ethereum Upgrade overshadowed the miners who had previously driven the ETH blockchain with promises of massive environmental benefits. Ethereum’s developers claimed the upgrade would make the network – hosting a $60 billion ecosystem of cryptocurrency exchanges, lending companies, non-fungible token (NFT) marketplaces, and other apps – more secure and scalable.
At the moment, Ethereum (ETH) is witnessing slight selling pressure as it moves closer to the $1,200 level. Nevertheless, there are high chances of a bounce soon, which could cause the price to climb to $1375. Moreover, some on-chain indicators are pointing towards positive development for Ethereum in terms of network activity.
Chain data provider Santiment reported: “Ethereum’s amount of new addresses being created is hovering around 70k per day again, the highest seen since early August. And after quite a bit of uncertainty around the mid-September merge, the supply of $ETH on exchanges has dropped back to 14.6%.”
Following the significant sell-off in June, Ethereum (ETH) showed a significant upward rally to $2,000 ahead of the Merge upgrade in September. The ETH price rallied approximately 80% from the June lows before drawing back again.
Ethereum (ETH) successfully conducted its Merge upgrade last month, and the ETH price hinted toward a ‘sell-the-news’ type of move. With the U.S. equity markets falling prey to the intense selling pressure, ETH saw a similar wave with the broader crypto market. Since mid-September, ETH has been under selling pressure constantly. Post the Merge event, the ETH price has corrected by more than 25%.
Lowered Discussion Rates- What Does This Indicate?
At the moment, ETH is floating just above $1,375 and has reached here for the first time in the last eight trading sessions. However, the discussion rates around ETH have fallen to a seven-month low. On-chain data provider Santiment warned that the lowered crowd interest in Ethereum could indicate a higher chance of a bounce.
Santiment added: “Ethereum has spiked back above the $1,375 mark, returning to levels last seen on September 27th. It appears the trading crowd has turned their interest to other coins, leaving $ETH prices to rise with much less resistance and expectation than usual.”
The Smooth Transition
The Merge officially kicked in at 6:43 a.m. UTC, with more than 41,000 people tuning in on YouTube to the “Ethereum Mainnet Merge Viewing Party.” They watched closely as key metrics trickled in, indicating that Ethereum’s core systems had remained intact. It took about 15 long minutes for the Merge to officially finalize and come out as a success.
The idea that Ethereum would eventually switch to proof-of-stake was there from the start. However, the transition was a complicated technical effort, essentially an endeavor so risky that many doubted it would happen successfully.
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Shiba Inu to Surpass Dogecoin Soon! On-Chain Metrics Hints Massive SHIB Price Rally
Shiba INU’s (SHIB) price in recent times has been outperforming its closest competitor Dogecoin by surging nearly 20% since the beginning of the month. On the other hand, the Dogecoin price is also following and recording decent gains. However, the SHIB price has gained significant momentum that may assist the price to maintain a significant upswing ahead.
But will DOGE price remain on the back foot or offer tough competition for SHIB price?
Dogecoin, despite its inception just before the 2017-18 bull run & crash, gained huge fame during the 2021 bull run. The bull run began with the DOGE price rally that marked an 800% jump in a single day. Moreover, the support from Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, made the asset the highest performer of 2021 which surged more than 100x in a matter of 6 to 8 months.
However, ever since the DOGE price smashed the highs, it fell deep into the bearish well, unable to recover. On the other hand, SHIB price also underwent a similar rally but has been displaying constant spikes of let.
Now when Shiba INU & Dogecoin are trading at 13th & 11th positions respectively, the below-mentioned metrics indicate, that SHIB to outperform DOGE very soon.
- The Market capitalization of Shiba INU has risen and has maintained an upper hand, compared to that of Dogecoin
- The Daily Active Addresses of Shiba INU have spiked high constantly compared to DOGE, that has witnessed just a couple of upswings
- Shiba INU in the past couple of months has made a strong social impact and due to this has maintained a larger social dominance compared to that of DOGE.
If Shiba INU price maintains the current momentum while Dogecoin continues to trade with a lowered pace, then probably SHIB may outperform DOGE to enter the top 10 assets very soon.
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On-Chain Data Reveals Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Hit Bottom Anytime Soon
It looks like The cryptocurrency market will continue its weekend bear movements as the world’s first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is still hovering around $19,000 price levels. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is selling at $19,741 with a fall of 0.24% over the last 24hrs.
Meanwhile, to know Bitcoin’s bottom there are two main on-chain indicators that one needs to look into, realized price and MVRV ratio.
Firstly, the realized price indicator is the one through which the average cost of Bitcoin supply for a day that each currency last transacted on-chain. This metric is considered one of the important indicators which help to know the market’s cost basis.
On the other hand, the MVRV ratio is the one that calculates the ratio between Bitcoin supply’s market capitalization along with its realized value. Through this ratio, Bitcoin’s present trade is positioned above or below the fair value and this calculation is used to understand net market profitability.
Whenever the spot price of Bitcoin is trading below that of realized price, the MVRV ratio will definitely trade below 1. This suggests that investors and traders are preserving their holdings below their cost basis and unrealized loss.
Next, when the MVRV has a consistent movement, there is a formation of support and when this is considered along with realized price, it may signal a bottom.
It is observed that even during earlier bear markets Bitcoin price has plunged below the 200-week moving average realized price. Also since 2011, this trade below the realized price is seen till 180 days, but in March 2020 the downfall was only for 7 days.
Now it’s been 79 days for the Bitcoin price positioned below the MVRV ratio since Terra collapsed in May. Though BTC price saw a leg up above the MVRV ratio in August, it’s still not the right time to say that Bitcoin’s bottom has found its end.
Bitcoin Price To Surpass $20,000 Area?
This depicts that $20,000 is the strong resistance area and this area suggests market strength and how low could the price drop in the days to come.
The Glassnode data suggests that in August Bitcoin experienced a significant jump in its relative unrealized loss after a surge at the start of summer. When there is an increase in unrealized loss score, it refers that addresses are still holding on to investment amidst their relative devaluation.
As per previous stats whenever unrealized relative loss has surged, Bitcoin showed higher lows. In the very next cycle, Bitcoin made a move towards the height that its last hit before the bearish cycle but failed.
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Can Traders Expect Crypto Bull Market in Q4-2022? Here’s What On-Chain Data Hints
Since May, post the Terra (LUNA) collapse, the crypto market hasn’t really witnessed a bull rally as the currencies have been fluctuating to a large extent. Bitcoin bottomed around $17,749 in June and hasn’t yet been able to recover; the price continues to hover around $20,000 now.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is selling at $19,895 after a drop of 0.95% over the last 24hrs. After attaining $20,300, the flagship currency lost that key level and it has been hovering between the $19,000-$20,000 range.
It’s important to note that even the market indicators are not pointing towards a positive price movement. Technical indicators hint that the crypto market is most likely to continue the current bear cycle for a longer while.
Crypto Under Bearish Pressure
Industry experts are of the opinion that the crypto market is currently analyzing the base cost, which indicates that the bears are dominating the space.
The analytic platform, Crypto Quant, claims that the overall crypto market is bearish and there is no confirmation of a breakout for the bulls to mark a valid entry. This is also confirmed by Market Value by Realized Value (MVRV).
This prediction is made after auditing the output profit ratio. This indicator is mainly used to analyze the expenses on-chain and know whether it is a profit or loss, as well as the price movement.
Bitcoin is seeing a downfall of 4.05% almost every week, however, Ethereum’s options market is experiencing huge activity with increased open interest. According to the latest stats, the open interest in ETH options was at $8.20 billion- significantly higher than that of Bitcoin, as BTC was at $5.40 billion.
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On-Chain Metrics Hints Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Might Plunge To $0.00000976 In September – Coinpedia – Fintech & Cryptocurreny News Media
Shiba Inu had been showing a bearish trend over the previous few weeks, but it just reversed the trend and attempted to show a positive one this month. The coin is clearly displaying a fresh trend and a brief uptrend.
As a result of the bears rejecting the infamous meme coin from the 8-day simple moving average, the Shiba Inu price is currently bidding at $0.00001204. Despite the fact that the bullish countertrend rally is still ongoing, a few underlying factors point to a negative foothold.
The number of daily active addresses for the SHIBA coin has significantly increased recently, according to Santiment’s Daily Active Addresses. Whales may be onboarding their SHIB tokens to exchanges with plans to sell them shortly, based on the tiny increase from 4,600 to the current reading of 6,200.
Dormant tokens hit peak
The first week of August saw a significant influx of dormant tokens hitting the market, which also affected the SHIB price. The indicator showed a rapid transfer of 130 million tokens that had not been moved in the previous two years. This is a highly alarming warning because, statistically, increases in the number of tokens in circulation typically lead to sharp declines in the value of cryptocurrencies.
Last but not least, the price of Shiba Inu has increased across all social media channels. This can be seen as a negative indicator because social dominance performance nearly doubled over the summer compared to the spring.
In conclusion, the price of Shiba Inu might trigger a catastrophic fall. The liquidity under the July 13 low at $0.00000976 stands a good likelihood of being breached based on technical and on-chain measures.
If $0.00001700 is breached, the bearish premise is refuted. The next Shiba bull run, with targets in the $0.00002400 region and a 100% increase from the present market value, could be sparked if the bulls can break through this level.
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This Is What Bitcoin’s On-Chain Metrics Suggests
It’s been a while that Bitcoin price action is not moving above $23,000 as the momentum has been switching between $19,000 and $20,000. The flagship currency has brought down most other cryptocurrencies.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is selling at $19,834 with a pinch of surge by 0.50% over the last 24hrs.
The upcoming days for the crypto market is also dependent on the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike that is scheduled on September 21st. The Wall Street experts are of the opinion that the Fed will go ahead with a decision to raise the interest rates by another 75 bps.
Bitcoin Price To Bottom ?
Bitcoin price action for the days to come could be known with the help of on-chain metrics like Realized price, Delta price along with Thermo price. Nevertheless, though these help in future prediction, the real picture of BTC price movement is obtained by technical and macroeconomic factors.
The popular on-chain price model to predict a Bitcoin price bottom is realized price. This value represents the most recent change in the average price of all Bitcoins in creation. As previously seen, Bitcoin has always plunged below the realized price and if Bitcoin continues to do so, other metrics will determine the action. At present, the realized price sits at $21,592.
While the earlier Bitcoin price action is considered for Delta price, BTC has a history of trading below this metric seen in 2015 and 2018 market correction. At the moment, Delta price is positioned at $14,478 and this points that Bitcoin is set to register another 28% drop from its current position.
The last one, Thermo price indicates Bitcoin bottom at $2,365 and with an increase in Bitcoin addresses, the price is most likely to settle at the said range.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision to increase the interest rates will all depend on CPI and employment stats for the month of August. The likelihood of a 75 bps rate increase is 67%, according to the CME FedWatch Platform. Wall Street banks anticipate an additional 75 basis points in September.
August month’s US job data reveal that the employment rate has dropped to 315k from July’s 528k. Conversely, August’s unemployment data has spiked to 3.7%. However, the CPI stats will ultimately influence the decision on interest rate raise this month.
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On-Chain Data Hints Bearish Scenario For Bitcoin, Will BTC Price Drop Below $18K? – Coinpedia – Fintech & Cryptocurreny News Media
Bitcoin (BTC) is a hot news sensation, and it seems that things have gone awry once again. According to Glassnode’s report, Bitcoin experienced turmoil in the network activity, leading to a series of sell-offs in the last 22 days.
When BTC made its all-time high of $68,789.63 on 10 November 2021, did investors know that the dream of $100K would go in vain in 2022?
The Long-term Holders and Short-term Holders Realized Price are two significant factors in preparing the on-chain analysis. The market becomes highly oversold when the short-term realized price exceeds the long-term realized price.
The Bears Are On The Move
During the first half of 2022, the price of BTC had dropped below by over 60%. As a result, the crypto king Bitcoin closed H1 at the $18,000 price level.
In July, however, BTC gave relief to its holders as the coin kept itself above the realised price for 23 consecutive days. Furthermore, BTC’s price had surged by over 15% within the 31-day period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
It is an essential factor for Bitcoin’s price that indicates meagre profitability if BTC drops below the realized price of short- and long-term holders. It is possible to witness two probabilities from here.
First, we can see a pump in BTC trading volume if institutional investors start adding BTC to their portfolio in the bearish phase or a sudden increase in selling of both short-term and long-term investors to exit at this price, taking a slight loss.
Glassnode discovered that investors having less than one BTC and whales with over 10,000 BTC (excluding exchanges and miners) accumulated and distributed BTC after it crashed below $20,000.
In case you want to ape in and buy the dip, Glassnode stated that there exists a general lack of speculative interest in BTC. Thus, it results in a decline in the exchange flows of Bitcoin.