With the latest gain, Bitcoin is likely to encounter its seventh “golden cross” in the past ten years, having risen more than 40% since the year’s beginning.
A “golden cross” pattern is expected this month, according to the daily period Bitcoin price chart. The 50-day SMA (blue) will cross over the 200-day SMA (red), resulting in a cross on the price chart. This is when the golden cross will happen. Although this typically denotes a positive market, historically speaking, not all Bitcoin price increases have followed golden crosses.
When the price of a security crosses its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) on the price chart, this is known as a “golden cross.” Moving averages are indicators that look in the past, thus the signal simply informs us that the market’s recent advances have outpaced its historical increases.
Nevertheless, traders and chart analysts view it as a sign of long-term price increases. The last time a golden cross was observed for Bitcoin was in September 2021, when it resulted in a 135% increase in value. However, the one in May 2020 was much more substantial.
The 50-Day SMA of Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency in the world by market capitalization, should pass the 200-Day SMA in about a week, assuming there isn’t a sudden and prolonged decline of more than 30% in price.
Bitcoin’s value increased in 2019 as a consequence of one of the consequential golden crossings, which occurred when the asset was trading at around $5,000. As a result of the rise, Bitcoin reached an all-time high in 2021 of approximately $69,000.
All things considered, the approaching golden cross pattern is a bullish sign for the cryptocurrency market and might predict a promising future for Bitcoin. While keeping in mind that other technical indications lean to short-term bearishness, it will be interesting to see if it indicates a sustainable rally.
The Bitcoin bulls have continued to surprise many in the past few weeks despite several calls for an imminent price correction. The largest digital asset has gained over 3 percent today to trade around $23.8k.
However, analysts are now convinced Bitcoin price must flip the 50-week and 200-week moving averages (WMAs) into support lines before a death cross occurs.
Historically, Bitcoin price has experienced a choppy market every time a death cross occurs. After the January crypto rally, the 50 and 200W MAs, which have never crossed since the inception of Bitcoin, are at their closest proximity as shown below.
Experts Weigh In: Bitcoin Market Outlook
According to content strategists Keith Alan, the recent interest rate hike is a key factor for the Bitcoin market to consider. Furthermore, the digital asset industry has shown tremendous correlation with market equities in the recent past following increased crypto regulations.
“Now, SPX has a triple top on the Monthly, and BTC is headed for a Death Cross on the Weekly. These are toppy signs, but the FED, FANG, and labor market are dealing wild cards,” Keith noted.
As such, the Material Scientist cofounder indicated that Bitcoin must deal with key moving averages to break out from $25k.
According to analysts Rekt Capital, Bitcoin price is still on a falling trend until it flips the $25k resistance level. The bull case scenario is likely to be extended by increased liquidations that result in a short squeeze. Notably, approximately $39 million has been liquidated in the Bitcoin market in the past 24 hours according to data provided by Coinglass.
The anticipation surrounding the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has got investors on the verge of their seats. As the crypto market eagerly awaits the outcome, Bitcoin has started feeling the heat, and it is consolidating in a range-bound zone.
Despite its recent struggle to establish a solid trend, there’s a glimmer of hope that the FOMC meeting could spark an upward rally in the BTC price chart. With the US economy showing steady signs of improvement and the inflation rate slowing down, the stage is set for a potentially bullish dance for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Witnesses The Best Month Since October 2021
Since the beginning of the new year, BTC’s price has gained over 40%. According to on-chain analytic firm, Glassnode, BTC has performed relatively well in January since October 2021, when it saw a jaw-dropping 41% gain in value.
To describe the reason behind the overwhelming performance, Glassnode hints at a combination of historic spot demand and a series of short squeezes, which has created a perfect storm in driving up the price of Bitcoin and sending it soaring to new heights.
Moreover, the firm claimed that the daily BTC transaction had touched a high of 50K, signifying investors’ interest in the asset. In addition, the flow of Bitcoin in and out of exchanges has stabilized significantly as a daily average of around $625 million is moving in both directions, bringing the exchange flow in a balanced shape.
This balanced situation in exchange flow signifies a healthy and robust BTC market, as buyers and sellers engage in a steady back-and-forth dance. This starkly contrasts with the turbulence of late 2022, when outflows dominated the scene.
Glassnode stated, “We also note that initial impulse of exchange outflows, in the aftermath of FTX, have calmed to neutral and are now balanced by newly motivated inflows.”
Will BTC Price Bring Golden Times Above Golden Cross?
Investors are busy predicting the next price movement because the BTC price gets stuck in the range of $23K-$24K in the last three days. As the market’s FUD situation hops in, analysts are closely watching the golden cross formation, which may spark bullish hopes in the BTC price chart.
A well-known crypto analyst, CryptoRand, predicts that Bitcoin price is poised for a bullish breakout by the next few weeks as it forms a golden cross in its price trend. The analyst noted that the 50 MA is building potential to cross above the 200 MA, known as the formation of a golden cross. The golden cross indicates a bull market for BTC, and it is strengthened with high trading volume, acting as a catalyst in the next Bitcoin bull run.
In 2019, one of the most significant golden crosses in Bitcoin’s history took place, and it made BTC the hottest investment in the crypto world by pushing its price by 600% in two years.
Ever since the year started, Bitcoin has been making some pretty good price movements. The king crypto has increased by a whopping 39% in the past 30 days.
This impressive action has sparked enthusiasm among traders and investors alike, and this month is on its way to becoming the best one Bitcoin (BTC) has had in a decade.
Best January in a Decade
The last time BTC had a better price movement in January is 2013 when it rose by 43% in just four weeks.
Bitcoin investors have seen negative returns in January six times out of the previous ten years, while on the other four occasions, they have seen double-digit marked increases. None was, of course, as good as this one.
Bitcoin’s price action appears to be setting up for a continuation of its recent climb from a technical point of view as well. As can be seen in its chart, a golden cross is very close to forming on the daily time frame, which is a bullish omen for the market.
After a prolonged period of Fear and Extreme Fear, the widely followed Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index just went back into the neutral zone (that is, above 50) for the first time after moving back and forth between Extreme Fear and Fear for quite some time.
The start of the subsequent Bitcoin bull market is typically when a sustainable rebound back into neutral occurs, like at the beginning of 2019 and then once more in the middle of 2020.
The entire crypto market is on a surge. The recent increase in cryptocurrency prices can be linked to the possibility that interest rate hikes will no longer be implemented. The fact that riskier investments, such as cryptocurrency, have been less appealing over the course of the past year as a result of increased interest rates makes the likelihood that they will fall down an incentive to invest.
Bitcoin price slipped down below $23,000 and created a wave of uncertainty over the crypto space. The altcoins which had risen above their respective resistance levels have dropped below the levels which could flash the revival of a bearish trend. Additionally, the star crypto is closer to witnessing a great leap but towards the south.
The star crypto is about to witness a death cross in the weekly timeframe for the very first time in history and hence the impact is being expected at a larger scale. The death cross is when the 200-day MA & 50-day MA levels cross each other and the 200-day MA levels head toward the lower support. Usually, the impact in the daily chart is bearish as the BTC price drops by nearly 7% to 10%.
Presently, the price trend is towards the south and hence the 50-day MA levels may cross over the 200-day MA to reach the lower support soon.
The death cross is expected to happen in the next week or 2 as the prevailing bearish formations may impact the price negatively. However, the price may still undergo a bullish divergence due to the below-mentioned reasons,
- BTC price is up by 50% from the November lows. Moreover, throughout history, the price surged by such a margin each time it tests the 200-Week MA level which was the bottom of the cycle.
- The weekly RSI levels whenever reach breaks above 60 after hitting the 50-Week MA, indicate the cycle bottom may be reached. Therefore, a notable upswing may be fast approaching.
- Presently, the weekly RSI is around 56.52 and hence a slight plunge may mark the bottom of the cycle ahead beyond which a notable upswing may be ignited
Collectively, after reaching the lower bottoms, the Bitcoin (BTC) price rally may being and reclaim the lost levels very soon.
Bitcoin Golden Cross 2023: Micheal van de Poppe Predict BTC Price To Surge 100% – Here’s The Timeline
Bitcoin price is constantly trying to jump beyond the crucial renaissance very close to $17,000 but facing major turbulence in slicing through $16,900.
Meanwhile, the altcoins are also facing much heat as the bearish cartel has strengthened its roots at the moment. Besides the speculations of the bear market reaching the climax are hovering within the crypto space.
A popular analyst, Micheal van de Poppe, believes that the bitcoin bear market is about the end as the Bitcoin price is about to ignite a ‘Golden Cross’.
In a recent video update, the analyst says that the event is about to begin in June which may be extended towards December where-in the BTC price may elevate to reach $37,000 levels.
“The actual move happens prior to the actual cross taking place so in essentially we are at the low or we close towards it and the Golden Cross which is taking place here is most likely going to take place during June towards December,”
Further, the analyst believes that the BTC price may replicate 2018-19 as the markets have slid heavily at the moment. Hence the markets may approach the levels where-in they may face some relief.
However, he goes on to say that in the weekly time frame, the BTC price is required to hold the crucial levels at around $12,326 to maintain some strength within the rally. Conversely, if the BTC price breaks above $18,000 then it may rise beyond $20,000.
To do so, the BTC price is required to flip above the crucial $17,500 in the lower time frame and $18,600 in the higher time frame. This may ignite the further upswing towards the next set of targets beyond $21,000.
“Once we flip $18.6K and even a lower time frame $17.5K those are the first arguments for continuation towards the upper boundaries and then we are looking at a potential case or first running towards $21.21K $23.5K and a $29K and possibly even $38K which is already a two and half X from here,”
Given that the bear market has already led crypto assets to lose the majority of their value in 2022, many traders and analysts are optimistic about the idea of a bullish storm on the horizon. Since the bull market’s peak over a year ago, volatility has greatly decreased, and prices of crypto assets are now calmer than they have been in a while.
The collapse of the Terra network and the bankruptcy of FTX caused two significant market crashes this year. The price of Bitcoin is still fluctuating in a range similar to that of five years ago.
However, according to technical indicators and several analysts, everything is not good in the hood. This week, Il Capo of Crypto issued a warning that the markets as a whole were not prepared for some unseen and upcoming losses.
“For now, it’s fine. Some sideways consolidation, before breaking $17K for further continuation to $17.5-17.7K,” he said.
A never-seen “death cross” between the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) that is currently due was predicted by Bleeding Crypto.
Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades called attention to the year’s end and the likelihood that this will be Bitcoin’s third consecutive year of decline.
“The percentage loss this year is sitting right in between the other two negative years, being 2014 and 2018,” Daan Crypto said.
Will retail buying drive the BTC price up?
On-chain activity hints towards greater Bitcoin selling, despite continued accumulation by small retail traders. Analysts point out that the current trend may significantly contribute to closing the wealth distribution gap. But according to Crypto Quant statistics, this can be a reason for concern for BTC owners in the near future because it might be a risky trade.
“Larger holders selling into smaller holders is really what you want to see if you believe in a longer-term Bitcoin thesis. Bitcoin becomes more distributed on the network. It is on the hands of more investors other than in the hands of a few whales.”
Bitcoin price is hovering below the crucial levels at $20,000 for over a month now and hence the volatility appears to have reached the bottom. Meanwhile, the volume maintains some decent levels which have failed to rise the volatility of the asset. In the coming days, a more dreadful dump is awaiting the Bitcoin (BTC) price rally due to which it may even reach its older levels too.
The BTC price on the weekly chart displays the possibility of forming a Death Cross as the 200-day MA & 50-day MA levels could face a crossover. It is also the first Death Cross happening in the weekly chart since the inception of Bitcoin which may happen somewhere in January or February 2023.
As mentioned in the above chart, the historical death cross is just a few weeks away and if the BTC price wants to nullify the impact, it is required to intensify its volatility. The price is required to move higher and lower very quickly and may even reach the bottom between $7000 to $8000, which may also be a temporary one.
However, the price amid the fresh drop has broken down from the lower trend line, displaying an acute bearish trend. Despite a bullish interference, the price may not get the required boosts as the trade set-up is completely in favor of bears. Moreover, the intensified volume signals the stiff involvement of the bulls and the bears due to which the BTC price has been restricted below the crucial resistance levels.
FOMC Meeting on Horizon, Will Bitcoin Form New Lows in September as Bearish Death Cross Haunts the Rally
Bitcoin price appears to be poised to hold above the crucial support zone between $18,800 & $18,200. As Coinpedia reported earlier, the BTC price continues to trade along the neckline of the lower support, intending to rebound finely in the coming days. However, the latest trade-set up flashes huge bearish signals as the price is expected to slice through these levels and register new lows very soon.
The 200-week MA is considered one of the important levels and the BTC price has been constantly failing to regain above these levels. Moreover, the unusual death cross is expected to occur in the next couple of days which could slash the price harder.
As seen in the chart, the BTC price has not tested the 200-WMA more frequently in the recent past. The test happened only a few times in history while the price was busy marking the bottoms of the bearish cycle. On the previous occasions when the price contacted the 200-WMA levels, it bounced off firmly and surged with magnificent numbers.
However, it is slightly diverse now as the asset has markers nearly 10-weekly candles below the crucial 200-WMA levels. Therefore, the probability of a rebound diminishes as the asset is preparing for a massive downswing.
The Bitcoin price is witnessing the first ever Death cross led by a cross of 20-WMA & 200-WMA levels. The 20-WMA levels have crossed the 200-WMA and heading towards the south. While the drop is not yet confirmed, a bearish close for the current week may validate the formation.
Since its inception, the 20-WMA levels traded close to the 200-WMA but never cross the levels. However, if the Bitcoin(BTC) price registers a rebound then the bearish formation may be invalidated. On the darker side, a huge plunge may be expected if the formation is validated which may drag the price below $15000 or even test the levels below $10,000 too.
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Bitcoin Death Cross – Historical Data Hints BTC Price To See Worst Case Scenario Dropping This Level – Coinpedia – Fintech & Cryptocurreny News Media
Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates once again this week, which has caused significant losses for Bitcoin, Ether, and the overall crypto market. Despite a bullish shift in the market a day earlier, it was unable to reverse the trend.
Rekt Capital, a well-known crypto expert, expects that the price of Bitcoin might drop below $13,900 and reach $11,500 in the worst case scenario.
The Bitcoin price is currently failing to break the $20,000 mark on a monthly basis, displaying volatility. The $20,000-$23,350 region will mostly determine bulls and bears in this market.
However, the lackluster price movement in September shows that $20,000 is currently acting as a resistance level. The following support levels for Bitcoin are $17,165 and $13,900 if the price of the cryptocurrency falls below $20,000 by month’s end.
After a Death Cross, historically, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) develops a bottom at or below the 200-weekly moving average (WMA). Retracements following the Death Cross have ranged from -42% to -73%.
What does death-cross say?
Therefore, based on previous post-Death Cross retracements and support levels, it is expected that the price of bitcoin would bottom out at roughly $13,900. In the worst-case scenario, the price of bitcoin would fall to $11,500.
The drop looks most likely because the price of bitcoin has already fallen below the 200-WMA and the psychological milestone of $20,000.
However, compared to prior eras, there is a significant change in the market cap size, liquidity, and institutional and retail use of Bitcoin now.
In 2015, there were 547 days before the Bitcoin halving, while in 2018, there were 517 days. The bottom will therefore happen in Q4 of this year if Bitcoin is going to reach its lowest point 517–547 days prior to the planned April 2024 halving.